Solar Market Glut to end by 2015; Lux Research

Tuesday, May 21, 2013 0 comments

The Solar Market had Tough Times in the past couple of Years, all thanks to the Module Supply Glut. According to the New Findings released by Lux Research, the solar photovoltaic (PV) market is all set for a  a rebound and is expected to reach $155 billion in 2018, with a CAGR of 10.5%.

According to the Research firm, the Solar PV market will just hit 35 GW in 2013 before rapidly ramping up to 61.7 GW in 2018.

“Manufacturers’ nightmare is turning into a long-term boon for the industry. Record low prices pushed gross margins to near zero or below, but they’ve made solar installations competitive in more markets,” said Ed Cahill, Lux Research Associate.

“Supply and demand will come back into balance in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability and restoring the industry to equilibrium,” he added.

Among their findings:
  • U.S., China, Japan, and India will take over where Germany and Italy left off. With an 18% CAGR to 10.8 GW of installations in 2018, the United States will emerge the world’s second-largest market. But China will leapfrog it, growing over 15% annually to 12.4 GW in 2018.
  • Utility-scale installations to grow the fastest; commercial the largest. Utility-scale solar, the smallest segment in 2012 at 8.6 GW, will grow the fastest to 19.9 GW in 2018 as developing markets turn to PV. Globally, commercial applications reign supreme as markets like the U.S. and Japan move to large rooftop installations.
  • Opportunities abound for cheap IP. Struggling start-ups present opportunities to acquire intellectual property at record low prices. A case in point: Hanergy acquired Miasolé – which in 2012 announced the leading CIGS module efficiency at 15.5% – for only $30 million after investors had pumped $500 million into the firm.

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